The necessity and complexity of developing digital models of thermal heating units, in particular, the PGU-450 during its operation in the heating mode, are shown. A simplified algorithm for constructing flow characteristics for CCGTs with one (GT1) and two (GT2) gas turbines using digital models of gas and steam turbines in the condensation mode is presented. Based on the constructed digital models, the features of the PGU-450 operating modes have been identified with their participation in regulating the electrical load schedules of the station and the power system. To account for them, a methodology has been developed to account for the influence of outdoor air temperature on the maximum and minimum power of the CCGT, on fuel consumption, and expressions for the boundary values of thermal and electrical loads are given. It is shown that the presence of digital models of CCGT in the heating mode allows solving many local problems before solving optimization problems at the station level. An example of illustrating the use of a digital model in solving the local problem of choosing the composition of the included equipment of a power plant with PGU-450 units is given.

Исследованы нестационарные характеристики производительности трехфазной системы массового обслуживания с пуассоновским входным потоком, экспоненциально распределенным временем обслуживания на всех фазах и ограничением на суммарный размер общего буфера. Записана система дифференциальных уравнений Колмогорова с использованием специально введенных функций, учитывающих закономерности функционирования системы. Для решения системы уравнений использован метод матрицы преобразования вероятностей. Получены выражения для нахождения вероятности потерь и производительности системы. В качестве примера рассмотрена система с размером буфера, равного трем. Исследована длительность переходного режима в зависимости от соотношений интенсивностей обслуживания на отдельных фазах обслуживания. Сделан вывод, что наибольшее влияние на длительность переходного режима оказывают интенсивности обслуживания на первой и второй фазах. Проанализированы зависимости максимальных значений нестационарной вероятности потерь и соответствующих стационарных вероятностей для различных значений интенсивностей обслуживания. Анализ характеристик производительности системы проведен для параметров, соответствующих современным оптическим сетям. Полученные выводы представляют интерес для проектирования высокопроизводительных вычислительных систем.

This paper is devoted to methodological problems of increasing the efficiency of the scenario approach in the processes of planning and managing the development of social and eco-nomic systems under uncertainty. Ways to improve the adequacy of simulation models based on the mathematical language of functional digraphs, used to form and analyze alternative scenarios for the evolution of problem situations, are presented. Mechanisms for analyzing a subject area and designing a problem situation passport are considered. The resulting part of this passport con-tains a problem statement and an initial scenario model based on coordinated expert assessments. To improve the adequacy of the basic simulation model yielded by the program-analytical com-plex of scenario modeling, the idea is to use verification testing mechanisms. They are intended to diagnose and isolate errors in determining the set of model factors and the properties of their rela-tions, as well as to correct the errors by adjusting the model structure. Based on the concept of a typical verification testing scheme introduced below, methods for assessing the efficiency of veri-fication procedures (the probability of no errors and the testing time) are developed. To improve the quality of scenarios generated and evolution models of problem situations, a scenario-event approach is proposed. This approach implements a transition from a real-valued phase space re-flecting changes in the values of factors of a scenario simulation model to an event space. The approach proposed expands the capabilities to analyze the processes and problem situations in qualitative terms, assess the correct realization of causal inter-factor and inter-model relations, and analyze the consistency of the modeling results on a set of identifiable events. Some exam-ples are provided to illustrate the practical use of the above approaches, methods, and technolo-gies in solving several application-oriented problems of managing the sustainable and safe devel-opment of complex socio-economic systems.

Рассмотрен подход к идентификации моделей движения транспортных средств по поверхности с изменяемыми в процессе движения подвижного объекта характеристиками, такими, например, как снежный покров, на основе спутниковых приемников (сенсоров) геодезического класса точности. Для примера представлено исследование режимов движения экспериментального электрического снегохода одноколейной компоновки — так называемого снегоцикла. Предложена схема размещения сенсоров для корректной постобработки данных. На основе полученных в ходе натурных испытаний данных показаны особенности динамики данного подвижного механического объекта в сравнении с движением по жестким поверхностям типа дорожного полотна; актуальность применения высокоточных систем геодезического класса точности для оценивания позиции и ориентации снегоцикла, а также невозможность применения простых моделей динамики из близких областей. Предложено дальнейшее развитие данного подхода к идентификации моделей подвижных объектов.

Sustainable development of a transport corporation is achieved through a consistent and balanced improvement of its economic and environmental performance indicators. This is largely facilitated by reducing fuel consumption by corporate vehicles, which saves costs and decreases harmful emissions into the environment. In this regard, a three-level structure for managing fuel consumption in a transport corporation is considered under uncertainty caused by both random external factors and the undesirable activity of corporate employees associated with their private goals not coinciding with the goal of the entire corporation. The top level of this structure is the Principal, the middle level is the Intendant, responsible for fuel consumption in a corporate division, and the bottom level is the Driver of a corporate vehicle. The sustainable behavior of corporate employees––the Intendant and Driver––to reduce fuel consumption within their competence is modeled. An organizational mechanism for the Intendant’s sustainable behavior is developed, including supervised learning proce-dures for the Principal and incentive procedures for the Intendant. An organizational mech-anism for the Driver’s sustainable behavior is also proposed: the Principal provides the In-tendant with supervised learning opportunities and delegates his authority to incentivize the Driver. As proven, the integration of these two mechanisms reduces fuel consumption and ensures sustainable development of the transport corporation. In addition, the sustainable behavior of corporate employees––the Intendant and Driver—ensures the sustainability of the entire corporation. The results are illustrated by an example of the fuel consumption management mechanism in JSC Russian Railways.