48938

Автор(ы): 

Автор(ов): 

3

Параметры публикации

Тип публикации: 

Статья в журнале/сборнике

Название: 

New Method of Randomized Forecasting Using Entropy-Robust Estimation: Application to the World Population Prediction

Электронная публикация: 

Да

DOI: 

10.3390/math4010016

Наименование источника: 

  • Mathematics

Обозначение и номер тома: 

No. 4

Город: 

  • Bazel, Швейцария

Издательство: 

  • MDPI

Год издания: 

2016

Страницы: 

1-16
Аннотация
We propose a new method of randomized forecasting (RF-method), which operates with models described by systems of linear ordinary differential equations with random parameters. The RF-method is based on entropy-robust estimation of the probability density functions (PDFs) of model parameters and measurement noises. The entropy-optimal estimator uses a limited amount of data. The method of randomized forecasting is applied toWorld population prediction. Ensembles of entropy-optimal prognostic trajectories of World population and their probability characteristics are generated. We show potential preferences of the proposed method in comparison with existing methods.

Библиографическая ссылка: 

Попков Ю.С., Дубнов Ю.А., Попков А.Ю. New Method of Randomized Forecasting Using Entropy-Robust Estimation: Application to the World Population Prediction // Mathematics. 2016. No. 4. С. 1-16.