85167

Автор(ы): 

Автор(ов): 

3

Параметры публикации

Тип публикации: 

Статья в журнале/сборнике

Название: 

An Algorithm for Identifying the Dichotomous Convolution Graph of Risk Components in Complex Organizational Systems Based on Its Expert-Defined Hierarchical Decomposition

Электронная публикация: 

Да

ISBN/ISSN: 

2782-2427

Наименование источника: 

  • Control Sciences

Обозначение и номер тома: 

No. 3

Город: 

  • Moscow

Издательство: 

  • V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences

Год издания: 

2026

Страницы: 

2-16
Аннотация
Most well-known methods and algorithms for assessing the risks of complex organiza- tional systems are based on the independence assumption of aggregate risk components. At the same time, in practice, risks are often interrelated, i.e., a change in one risk entails a change in others. Therefore, when assessing the aggregate risk of organizational systems, their complexity––the presence of numerous interrelated risks––should be taken into account. This can be done using the integrated rating mechanism as a multicriteria assessment method. In the classi- cal version, its components––the binary trees of criteria and the logical convolution matrices of their values––are set by experts. However, in many cases, experts cannot agree on the structure of the integrated rating tree. In such practical situations, formal methods for synthesizing the tree structure considering the system specifics are in demand. Even if a method yields a nonunique solution, it will ensure the latter’s logical validity, and the results can be used in practical tasks. In this paper, the mechanism is extended by replacing the binary integrated rating tree with the di- chotomous convolution of aggregate risk components of complex organizational systems, based on its expert-defined decomposition. An algorithm for identifying the dichotomous convolution graph of risk components is proposed, including construction rules and verification criteria. The theoretical results are applied to construct a system for assessing the risk of an aviation accident.

Библиографическая ссылка: 

Рей А.С., Широкий А.А., Авдеева З.К. An Algorithm for Identifying the Dichotomous Convolution Graph of Risk Components in Complex Organizational Systems Based on Its Expert-Defined Hierarchical Decomposition // Control Sciences. 2026. No. 3. С. 2-16.