The strategic planning system of the Russian Federation widely uses programtarget planning methods to achieve target development indicators for individual sectors and industries of the economy. The report examines the tasks of analyzing and forecasting the degree of achievability of target indicators of development programs under sanctions. We propose an approach to solving this problem, based on the construction of simula-tion models that make it possible to simulate material and financial flows over the periods of the program for various scenarios of sanctions restrictions. This approach allows us to numerically assess the impact of identified risks and changes in scenario conditions on the target indicators of the program. As part of the study, multifactor calculations were carried out to analyze the achievability of the target indicators of the “Com-prehensive Program for the Development of the Air Transport Industry of the Russian Federation until 2030,” which are il-lustrated with numerical examples.