Economic integration is one of the key trends in the modern economy. The undisputed
leader of this process is the European Union (EU). The COVID-19 pandemic led to some instability
in the EU. Brexit exacerbated this instability. Under these conditions, the question arises: is the
impact of COVID-19 on European integration a one-time shock that will soon lose its significance, or
are more fundamental reasons at the heart of the disintegration potential. The study aims to
evaluate the risks of integration processes in the EU. Two indicators were used to quantify the
degree of convergence: β-convergence and σ-convergence. A quantitative analysis of convergence
showed a high degree of convergence of countries in terms of per capita gross domestic product
(GDP) and a lack of convergence in terms of labor productivity. Consumption in countries with
catch-up development comes primarily from the redistribution of the EU budget and the wages of
migrants. This redistribution weakens integration incentives for donor countries. And restrictions
of COVID-19 pandemic weaken incentives for integration for recipient countries. Therefore, the
likelihood of disintegration in the EU is increasing.