Objective. To make mathematical modeling and design an adequate predictive model with the identification of the main factors affecting the adherence to smoking among female students of a medical university. Methods. Phases and methods of statistical processing: cleaning expert data from factors that caused irreconcilable disagreements of experts using the Cochran and Bartlett criteria; checking the significance of the concordance rate using the Pearson χ2 criterion; designing a mathematical model for predicting of nicotine addiction among female students of medical universities; ranking factors of nicotine addiction in the form of an histogram, constructed in descending order of numerical values, taken in the form of percent; assessment of the compliance of the ranking obtained with the objective laws of nature using the Zipf law for comparing the obtained histogram with the Zipf curve. Results. The study of nicotine addiction among female students of medical universities identified 8 main factors out of 26 factors: academic performance, number of cigarettes per day, how difficult abstinence from smoking is, smoking of entourage, which cigarette is more difficult to refrain from, the time of the first cigarette, smoker irritation by the persuasion to quit smoking. Self-rejection of addiction is reliably possible (p < 0.05) for female students of medical universities with less than 2 years of smoking experience. Smoking experience of 2—5 years will require the help of specialists. Nicotine addiction for more than 5 years complicates smoking cessation even with the active use of appropriate technologies. Interpretation. The main factor affecting adherence to smoking among female students was the duration of smoking. It is necessary to introduce an additional module into the curriculum on the study of technologies to discourage future MDs from smoking.