We have developed a stress testing approach to
determine the boundary values of indicators of the economic state
of backbone non-financial enterprises when managing them
according to the criterion of the cash balance.
One of the principal indicators affected by the pandemic is
considered – the change in the company’s revenue. The
formulation and method of determining the permissible change in
revenue at which the enterprise will maintain normal functioning
are proposed. As a condition for normal functioning, the nonnegativity of the company’s cash balance projected for the next
year is assumed. From this condition, the permissible change in
revenue is determined based on the obtained analytical expression
and data from open sources, making it possible to reduce the
complexity of determining the boundary values of the indicator.
We analyzed the actual data for 2020 and compared it with the
calculated results. We propose to use the concept of stress testing
to select government-supported enterprises in a pandemic.
Keywords — stress testing, the critical combination of
parameters, risk management, financial forecasting, modeling,
inverse problem, cash flow, operational efficiency, COVID-19