Importance Investment projects for developing the productive potential of aviation enterprises have a protracted period of equity divestment. Throughout the period, the projected conditions may change. To adapt to such unpredictable developments, enterprises have to incur significant financial costs, thus causing unrecoverable losses. Therefore, many projects at the investment stage are exposed to material risk. Objectives We devise a new approach to evaluating whether the productive potential of the Russian aviation industry is effectively developed. Throughout the implementation period, there come out different estimates of the demand, cost, and new technologies. Managing the implementation of protracted investment projects requires a toolkit for applying the real options approach. Methods The research relies upon methods of logic and statistical analysis, and mathematical modeling in economics. Results We propose a new classification of possible changes in the investment project environment. We analyzed losses by project implementation scenario at different stages. The research also considers the specifics of the aviation industry and analyzes how the technological level of production influences respective risks. Conclusions and Relevance We assessed the effectiveness of the productive potential development in the Russian aviation industry. It would be reasonable to consider our estimates to analyze the effectiveness of adaptive management of protracted investment projects for the productive potential development. The estimates may help identify the most material risks at different stages of such projects. We also provide our recommendations for optimizing the management of such risks.