74442

Автор(ы): 

Автор(ов): 

1

Параметры публикации

Тип публикации: 

Статья в журнале/сборнике

Название: 

Scenario-Cognitive Modeling of Complex Systems Based on Event-Driven Identification of Factor Dynamics

ISBN/ISSN: 

2782-2427

DOI: 

10.25728/cs.2023.3.5

Наименование источника: 

  • Control Sciences

Обозначение и номер тома: 

№ 3

Город: 

  • Moscow

Издательство: 

  • ИПУ РАН

Год издания: 

2023

Страницы: 

55-64
Аннотация
This paper is devoted to methodological problems of increasing the effectiveness of scenario analysis and modeling of development processes in socio-economic systems. The corresponding results can be used in management decision support systems for proactive evaluation of their effectiveness. Several limitations of the traditional approach to scenario-cognitive modeling are considered; due to these limitations, the resulting scenario neglects key events directly affecting the assessment of the current situation and decision-making. A novel approach is proposed to identify and analyze the dynamics of factor values when studying the model as well as to form additional scenario-event interrelations between the factors in order to increase the adequacy of the model to the situation. A computational algorithm is developed to analyze the dynamics of factor values of the model. This algorithm is implemented and tested within the programanalytical complex of scenario modeling. Finally, an example of using the algorithm is given.

Библиографическая ссылка: 

Чернов И.В. Scenario-Cognitive Modeling of Complex Systems Based on Event-Driven Identification of Factor Dynamics // Control Sciences. 2023. № 3. С. 55-64.