The models of calculating the strategic plans for the development of the agrarian sector, which is an integral part of the economic system of the Russian Federation, are considered. The calculation of strategic plans is based on the methodology of indicative framework planning, which uses multisectoral and multibranch models of the economy. Scenarios of the indicative plan are formed as a result of solving the optimization problem with the criterion of maximum productivity of the economy under various conditions. To link the indicative plan to the rate of capital formation, a single-product model of GDP reproduction is used. At the level of implementation of the plan, a method for assessing the instability of enterprises in the agricultural sector is considered.