The current state of the coal market and the problems of forming coal routes and the development of seaports are considered. The main elements of the world logistics system that form the flows of coal routes are highlighted. The principles of forming trains on the railway transport of countries forming freight flows are proposed. Prospective models and methods are proposed, an end-to-end scenario analysis of flows of international coal routes, in order to attract additional cargo volumes to international transport corridors, taking into account the rapid growth in the volume of traffic in the communication between Europe and Asia, containing a large market potential, taking into account throughput and processing infrastructure capabilities and the availability of rolling stock, taking into account the port, border, customs, sanitary, phytosanitary and other restrictions on functioning. The scenarios for the development of international logistics in the implementation of threats of various types are considered, which allow for a continuous flow of coal transportation to seaports in conditions of uncertainty in order to improve management efficiency. A scenario analysis technique has been developed based on the generation of scenarios for the development of a system in conditions of various types of uncertainty: probabilistic, natural, game, in modern competitive conditions. A number of scenarios are indicated with an indication of the threats being implemented, the characteristic features of the development of the situation, the recommended control tools built on the basis of solving the problems of direct and reverse control